What to watch for as China’s economy grows
A new report from global investment firm Fathom, which focuses on Chinese companies, says China is the fastest-growing consumer economy in the world and is on track to surpass Japan’s economy in 2020.
But the report also highlights how much work remains to be done for China to become the global leader in consumer demand.
The report, “The China Consumer: The Next Big Market,” says China has an estimated $6.4 trillion in market capitalization, or about 4 percent of global gross domestic product, and that Chinese consumers are increasingly searching for goods they can afford to buy.
“China is the world’s second-largest consumer market, with a projected GDP of $6 trillion in 2020,” the report said.
China is also growing rapidly in the areas of consumer spending, consumption, and finance, according to the report.
Fathom said the Chinese economy is expected to grow by 9.6 percent in 2020, while Japan’s will grow by 5.6.
For a country that grew at just under 7 percent in 2015, China is on pace to reach 7.1 percent growth in 2020 and overtake Japan in the consumer market.
The report projects China’s consumer market to grow from $9.1 trillion in 2021 to $12.1 billion in 2035.
China is expected by 2020 to surpass the U.S. as the world leader in global consumer spending and consumption, according the report, which predicts that Chinese households will spend $2.2 trillion on consumer goods and services by 2020.
As consumers spend more on goods and more on services, China’s growth in the 2020s will be more than offset by the decline in the U, according Fathom.
To help the country make up for its falling spending, Fathom forecasts that China will be the world champion in the use of digital payments and payments infrastructure, and will grow its digital market share to 29 percent in the coming decade.
The report says that China’s growing economy will also lead to an influx of foreign capital and will be a driving force in global economic growth.
Despite its growth, Fathan predicts that China faces several challenges, including slowing economic growth, slowing foreign investment, and weak infrastructure, the Wall Street, and the Wall Streets Journal.
A recent report by the OECD said China’s slowing economy, high unemployment, and rising social unrest have made the country vulnerable to economic slowdown and financial contagion.
China’s slow economic growth is expected in 2020 to reach a five-year low of 7.7 percent, according to the OECD.
The country’s unemployment rate has fallen to 11.5 percent from 17.7.
According to the World Bank, China remains the world economy’s largest exporter of goods and commodities and the second-biggest importer of them.
But the report says the country faces an economic slowdown as it adjusts to the impact of the massive increase in exports, a slowing economy and a slowing currency.
According to Fathom’s analysis, China will experience an economic downturn of at least five percent over the next five years, while other economies like India and Indonesia will experience declines of at most 1 percent.
This article was first published by Fathom Partners, a private investment research and advisory firm, and has been reprinted with permission.
For more on the report and Fathom click here